Alcaraz Revisited
We took a look at Carlos Alcaraz’ performance in his win in May over Novak Djokovic. The key finding from that match was that Alcaraz’ forehand was the point-ending shot (either a winner or an error) on over 30% of points played. With this hyper-aggressive style, he effectively kept the match under his control.
With his third straight 5-set win at the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz merits another look at HOW he goes about winning. In particular, we take a close look at his 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 win over Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals. Overall, Alcaraz dominated in the number of points won, 171-142. To Tiafoe’s credit, he managed to take both of the tight sets in tiebreaks. The miracle of tennis scoring kept the match close. Here we take a look at how he did within the 3 different rally length categories:
Total: | ||||
Alcaz | 0-4 | 5 to 8 | 9+ | |
100 | 47 | 24 | 171 | |
108 | 24 | 10 | 142 |
The numbers are simply the number of points won in each category. The first row is Alcaraz; the second row is Tiafoe. The 0-4 rallies were very close to even, with a slight edge to Tiafoe. However, in the two longer rally categories, Alcaraz’ margin was an astounding 71-34. But here is a truly astounding statistic which clarifies his success even more clearly:
FH | ||||
Alc | W | UNF | ||
Total | 41 | 24 | 65 | 20.77% |
0-4 | 5 to 8 | 9+ | ||
W | 21 | 13 | 7 | 41 |
UNF | 21 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
Tfoe | FH | |||
Total | 24 | 28 | 52 | 16.61% |
0-4 | 5 to 8 | 9+ | ||
W | 12 | 7 | 5 | 24 |
UNF | 10 | 12 | 6 | 28 |
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Focusing on the forehand comparison alone, Alcaraz was far less DOMINATING with his forehand than he was against Djokovic – ending about 21% of points with his forehand). However, his DIFFERENTIAL (winners – unforced errors) was a whopping +17! In addition, we can see that in point-ending forehands greater than 4 shots, he had 20 winners and only 3 unforced errors. Contrast that with Tiafoe who was 12-18 in the same category. Conclusion: Alcaraz forehand is not only strong, but the longer the point lasts, the better he does!
It should be a great matchup against Casper Ruud’s forehand in the Final!
