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Revisiting Carlos Alcaraz: What Do the Stats Tell Us?

Revisiting Carlos Alcaraz: What Do the Stats Tell Us? image

Alcaraz Revisited

                We took a look at Carlos Alcaraz’ performance in his win in May over Novak Djokovic. The key finding from that match was that Alcaraz’ forehand was the point-ending shot (either a winner or an error) on over 30% of points played. With this hyper-aggressive style, he effectively kept the match under his control.

             With his third straight 5-set win at the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz merits another look at HOW he goes about winning. In particular, we take a close look at his 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 win over Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals. Overall, Alcaraz dominated in the number of points won, 171-142. To Tiafoe’s credit, he managed to take both of the tight sets in tiebreaks. The miracle of tennis scoring kept the match close. Here we take a look at how he did within the 3 different rally length categories:

Total:

    

Alcaz

0-4

5 to 8

9+

 
 

100

47

24

171

 

108

24

10

142

 

The numbers are simply the number of points won in each category. The first row is Alcaraz; the second row is Tiafoe. The 0-4 rallies were very close to even, with a slight edge to Tiafoe. However, in the two longer rally categories, Alcaraz’ margin was an astounding 71-34. But here is a truly astounding statistic which clarifies his success even more clearly:

FH

    

Alc

W

UNF

  

Total

41

24

65

20.77%

 

0-4

5 to 8

9+

 

W

21

13

7

41

UNF

21

3

0

24

     
     

Tfoe

FH

   

Total

24

28

52

16.61%

 

0-4

5 to 8

9+

 

W

12

7

5

24

UNF

10

12

6

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

          Focusing on the forehand comparison alone, Alcaraz was far less DOMINATING with his forehand than he was against Djokovic – ending about 21% of points with his forehand). However, his DIFFERENTIAL (winners – unforced errors) was a whopping +17! In addition, we can see that in point-ending forehands greater than 4 shots, he had 20 winners and only 3 unforced errors. Contrast that with Tiafoe who was 12-18 in the same category. Conclusion: Alcaraz forehand is not only strong, but the longer the point lasts, the better he does!

                It should be a great matchup against Casper Ruud’s forehand in the Final!

 

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